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Prediction for CME (2014-08-22T06:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-08-22T06:28Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-08-27T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -76
Dst min. time: 2014-08-27T18:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-08-26T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Aug 23 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels this period. Region 2149 (N10E57,
Eai/beta) produced a C6/1n flare at 22/1257 UTC and Region 2146 (N10W14,
Cso/beta) produced a C6/Sn flare at 22/1552 UTC, which were the largest
events of the period.

Regions 2146 and 2149 exhibited a moderate decay trend this period and
decreased in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 2143 (S07W60,
Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth this period while the other regions on
the visible disk were relatively stable.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with activity from Region
2146 were observed off the west limb this period. The first CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 22/1124 UTC
and was associated with a C2/Sf flare at 22/1027 UTC. The second CME
was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 22/1636 UTC and was associated
with the C6/Sn flare at 22/1552 UTC. These CMEs are expected to merge
en route to Earth and arrival as one event.

Subsequent analysis of these events and WSA-ENLIL model output suggest a
likely CME arrival midday on 26 Aug. See the 24/0030 UTC forecast
discussion for anticipated impacts.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (23-25 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
throughout the period, reaching a maximum flux value of 289 pfu at
22/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the next three days (23-25 Aug). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for
the next three days (23-25 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a continued nominal
solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from
initial values near 360 km/s to end-of-period values near 310 km/s. IMF
total field values were steady between 2-6 nT. The Bz component was
predominately northward early in the period but briefly deviated
southward late in the period, reaching a maximum southward component of
-4 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) sector
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels
for the next three days (23-25 Aug) under a continued nominal solar wind
regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet due to a nominal solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the next
three days (23-25 Aug).

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Aug 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 24-Aug 26 2014

Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 2
06-09UT 1 1 2
09-12UT 1 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 3
15-18UT 1 1 4
18-21UT 2 2 4
21-00UT 2 2 4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014

Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2014

Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug 26
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Lead Time: 83.50 hour(s)
Difference: 12.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-08-23T12:30Z

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